CS 132 Capstone Project

EV-DOMINATION

by Ivan Joshua Chung, Ezekiel James Diloy, and Miguel Joaquin Millora

Overview

With the rise of EVs in the country, our project EV-Domination, focuses on the actual impact that Electric Road Vehicles have on the country's overall carbon emission. The group aims to enlighten the public on the effectivity of Electric Vehicles, and if it really is an alternative to Internal Combustion Engines.

A few years back, scientists brought news of the disastrous effects of global warming. Although a bit slow, people have begun working on recovering the state of the world back to the acceptable range. However, scientists have also said that in regards to the state of the world due to global warming, “there is no recovery/fixing, there is only preventing more damage”. So, this study is aimed to assist in the movement of transitioning from fossil fuels to electricity-powered transportation

Hypothesis

As the adoption of electric vehicles continues to rise in the country, carbon emissions are expected to decrease.

RESEARCH QUESTION

How does the carbon emissions of electricity generation affect the overall sustainability of electric vehicles?

Analyze data on the Gross Power Generation by Plant Type to assess whether Electricity is a better alternative to Gasoline in vehicles.

RESEARCH QUESTION

How does the transition from Gasoline to Electricity in automotive vehicles affect the carbon footprint in the Philippines?

Carbon emissions from the years before the rise of electric vehicles will be compared to current carbon emissions to assess the impact of their adoption.

Models

Data Collection

We have collected raw data from Climate TRACE regarding the CO2 Emissions of Road Transport Vehicles across the Philippines, Department of Energy (DOE) regarding the power generated by plant type, and Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc (CAMPI) regarding the EVs Sales.

Our Dataset

ML Model

A predictive model for estimating future carbon emissions across cities and municipalities in the Philippines. By analyzing historical and current data from the transportation sector, this machine learning model helps identify emission trends and contributing factors at the local level.

Our Model
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Annual CO2 Emission of Power by Plant Type
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Car Sales in the Philippines
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CO2 Emissions and EVs Sales
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Main Energy Types



The transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) has shown a promising impact on reducing carbon emissions from the road transportation sector, as seen in the gradual decline of annual emissions correlating with the rise in EV sales. However, this environmental benefit may be offset by the increased demand for electricity, especially if it continues to be met primarily through fossil fuel-based power generation, which significantly contributes to CO2 emissions. In the Philippines, while EV adoption is growing, total car sales indicate that EVs still represent a small fraction of the market, which is expected given their recent promotion starting in 2022. Additionally, the country’s power generation remains heavily reliant on coal, with renewable energy growing only modestly, highlighting the urgent need for a broader shift to cleaner energy sources to ensure that the environmental gains from EV adoption are not nullified by emissions from energy production.

Results

Based on the results of the linear regression models, there appears to be no significant relationship between the year and CO2 emissions from transportation, nor between EV sales and CO2 emissions. The R² values for both models are 0.00, indicating that neither variable explains any discrepancy in CO2 emissions. Additionally, the p-values for the independent variables are the following: 0.93 for Year and 0.94 for EV Sales. This suggests that the observed trends could be caused by other factors such as the pandemic which associates a reduction in carbon emissions due to the lack of vehicles in the road.

Several possible explanations may account for these findings. First, the adoption of EVs may still be too recent or too limited in scale to produce a noticeable effect on nationwide emissions. Second, the Covid pandemic likely introduced a major confounding factor: during 2020 and parts of 2021, transportation patterns shifted dramatically due to lockdowns, reduced commuting, and travel restrictions. These changes could have temporarily reduced CO2 emissions regardless of EV sales, thus distorting the longer-term trends and weakening any correlation. Furthermore, post-pandemic recovery may have led to a rebound in emissions as travel resumed, again complicating any potential link between EV growth and emissions decline.

Discussion

The findings from this study highlight the potential that electric vehicles (EVs) can play in reducing carbon emissions in the Philippines. As the country continues to urbanize and motorization increases, transportation has become a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), the transport sector accounts for approximately 22.8% of the country’s total carbon emissions in 2020. And is projected to rise 7.1% annually if there are no actions done to mitigate this.

Key Point 1:

Taking a look at the data gathered from Climate TRACE and Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc (CAMPI), carbon emissions from the transport showed a slight drop when the sales of electric vehicles (EVs) started to rise. Based on the data obtained from CAMPI, the adoption of electric vehicles in the Philippines remains limited. As a result, their current impact on reducing carbon emissions in the transport sector is not yet significant. Given the current pace of adoption, we are still awaiting the time when electric vehicle usage in the country reaches a substantial level, allowing for a more definitive assessment of its impact on reducing carbon emissions.

Key Point 2:

The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) brings with it an increased demand for electricity to power these vehicles. This would highlight the importance of ensuring that the additional energy required is sourced from low-carbon or renewable sources to maximize the environmental benefits of EV adoption. Although based from the data gathered from Department of Energy from 2023, the main sources of energy in the Philippines still remains to be the Coal Based Power Plants, which is also the largest contributor of carbon emissions in the power production sector based from Climate TRACE. This raises the critical question of whether electric vehicles (EVs) will ultimately lead to a net reduction in carbon emissions, or if the increased electricity demand might offset these gains through higher emissions from energy production. For electric vehicles to achieve their full potential in reducing carbon emissions, the Philippines must not only focus on increasing EV adoption but also prioritize the transition to renewable energy sources. Without a cleaner energy grid, the environmental benefits of EVs will be limited, as the electricity used to charge them could still be derived from carbon-intensive sources.

Conclusion

While electric vehicles (EVs) present a promising opportunity to reduce carbon emissions in the Philippines’ transport sector, their current impact remains limited due to low adoption rates. Although a slight decrease in emissions has been observed alongside the rise in EV sales, this change is not yet substantial. Furthermore, the continued reliance on coal-based power generation raises concerns about whether the increased electricity demand from EVs might simply shift emissions from one sector to another. To maximize the environmental benefits of EVs, it is crucial that the country not only accelerates EV adoption but also transitions to cleaner, renewable energy sources. Without this dual approach, the full potential of EVs in contributing to national carbon reduction efforts will remain unrealized. With all this in mind, the Philippines remains committed to promoting the adoption of EVs for their long-term potential in reducing carbon emissions—what remains is to ensure sustained efforts and patiently await the significant impacts to materialize.

CALL TO ACTION

Electrify the Nation: A Call to Action for Sustainable Transport and Energy

The future of sustainable transportation starts here. By embracing electric vehicles and shifting to renewable energy, the Philippines can cut carbon emissions, improve air quality, and create a healthier environment for all. Together, we can electrify the nation and drive toward a brighter, more sustainable tomorrow.

The Team

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"As a car enthusiast, I've been closely following the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Philippines. Inspired by the lessons from our Data Science class, my group and I aim to study the actual environmental impact of EV adoption in the country."
- Ezekiel James Diloy
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"I have an interest in cars. I also have an interest in improving the quality of life for Mother Nature. With that in mind, this project is a good opportunity to satisfy those interests."
- Ivan Joshua Chung
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"As someone who's interested in the field of technology, I’ve always been fascinated by how vehicles evolve especially with the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). This project gives me the opportunity to explore that intersection of technology, environment, and real-world challenges."
- Miguel Joaquin Millora